JPMorgan & Traders: Turkey to Pause Rate Cuts as Inflation Hits 31.53%

JPMorgan & Traders: Turkey to Pause Rate Cuts

March 3, 2026 at 4:26 AM UTC (updated 7:02 AM UTC)

JPMorgan and market traders see Turkey pausing planned rate cuts after annual inflation accelerated to 31.53% in February, up from 30.65% in January. Monthly consumer prices rose 2.96% in February versus 4.84% in January. The acceleration, combined with a spike in energy costs tied to the Iran war, complicates the central bank's disinflation efforts and reinforces caution on monetary easing.

Key data

• Annual inflation: 31.53% in February (January: 30.65%)
• Monthly inflation: 2.96% in February (January: 4.84%)
• Macro drivers: surge in energy costs linked to the Iran war that pressures headline inflation and slows disinflation

Market and policy implications

• Policy stance: Elevated annual inflation and energy-price volatility support expectations of a pause in rate cuts rather than near-term easing.
• Risk premium: Energy-driven inflation increases the odds of policy caution from the central bank until headline inflation shows sustained decline.
• Trader focus: Short-term market positioning is likely to prioritize inflation prints and energy price trajectories over scheduled easing plans.

What investors and traders should watch

• Next monthly CPI release for confirmation of disinflation momentum
• Short-term movements in energy prices and supply-risk indicators related to Iran
• Central bank communications on the timing and sequencing of any rate cuts
• Currency and fixed-income reactions to incoming inflation data

Tickers

• AM (included for investor watchlists and sector monitoring)

This concise briefing preserves the core data points from the February release and highlights why higher-than-expected annual inflation, together with energy cost shocks, is driving market expectations that Turkey will pause planned rate cuts.