Iran Claims 35 Vessels In Hormuz; Analytics Count 10
0h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
strait-of-hormuziran-navy
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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Iran’s navy reported 35 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, 24 May 2026. Independent maritime analytics firms registered approximately 10 transits for the same period, continuing a discrepancy observed earlier in the week. The data conflict follows weeks of diplomatic pressure on Tehran to ease restrictions on the critical waterway as a precondition for advancing nuclear talks with the United States. The 21 million barrels of oil moving through the strait daily anchor a key risk premium for global energy markets.
The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most significant oil transit chokepoint. An estimated 21 million barrels per day, or about 21% of global seaborne petroleum consumption, passed through it in 2025. Iran has periodically threatened or conducted military exercises to close the strait, most notably during the 2019 'Tanker Wars,' which saw attacks on six commercial vessels and a brief $8 spike in Brent crude.
The current macro backdrop features Brent crude trading near $83 per barrel with a persistent $5-7 geopolitical risk premium. The 10-year US Treasury yield holds at 4.28%. Market volatility, measured by the CBOE Volatility Index VIX, remains subdued at 12.5.
The immediate catalyst is the US diplomatic push for a nuclear framework. Washington has explicitly demanded Iran relax its naval posture in Hormuz as a goodwill measure. Tehran's public claims of increased traffic appear designed to create optical progress. This comes after a month of heightened Iranian naval interdictions and inspections, which reduced average daily transits by 15% compared to April 2024 levels.
The divergence between claimed and observed maritime traffic is stark. On Monday, 18 May, Iran reported 26 transits. Independent analytics from MarineTraffic and TankerTrackers.com showed 10 transits. The Friday claim of 35 vessels represents a 240% increase over the independently verified Monday figure.
Average daily transits for May 2026 are tracking at 78 vessels, down from 92 in May 2024. The 15% year-on-year decline correlates with a 22% increase in Iranian naval patrols. The strait is 21 nautical miles wide at its narrowest point, with shipping lanes just 2 miles wide in either direction.
Global benchmark Brent crude currently trades at $82.94 per barrel. The United States Oil Fund USO has seen net outflows of $120 million over the past week. In contrast, the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF XOP is up 3.2% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500's 8.1% gain.
| Metric | Iran's Claim (24 May) | Independent Data (24 May) |
|---|---|---|
| Vessel Transits | 35 | ~10 |
The credibility gap injects uncertainty directly into energy and shipping markets. Integrated oil majors like Shell SHEL and TotalEnergies TTE benefit from elevated risk premiums but face physical supply chain disruptions. Their refining margins could expand by $2-4 per barrel if fears escalate. Pure-play tanker owners Frontline FRO and Euronav EURN see day-rate upside but also face higher war risk insurance premiums, which have already risen 30% this month.
The primary counter-argument is that markets have grown desensitized to Iranian posturing, viewing it as non-credible brinkmanship. The muted VIX reaction supports this. The risk is that optical maneuvers precede an actual incident, catching positioned shorts off guard.
Positioning data shows hedge funds increased net-long positions in Brent crude futures by 12,000 contracts last week. Conversely, money managers hold net-short positions in container shipping stocks like Maersk MAERSK-B, anticipating broader trade disruption. Flow is moving into midstream US pipeline operators like Enterprise Products Partners EPD as a safe-haven domestic energy play.
The next tangible catalyst is the 15 June 2026 OPEC+ meeting, where members will assess security risks to production. The 30 June expiry of a key UN sanctions waiver on Iranian oil exports is another date. The US Navy's Fifth Fleet is scheduled to begin a major exercise in the Arabian Sea on 10 June.
Key levels for Brent crude are $85.50 resistance, a level not breached since April, and $80 support. A sustained break above $85.50 would signal markets are pricing in a higher probability of disruption. Watch the 50-day moving average for the Baltic Dry Index BDIY, currently at 1,850, for signs of broader shipping stress.
If verified transit numbers remain low while Iranian claims stay high, the diplomatic process will likely stall. A convergence of data toward Iran's claims would indicate a tangible de-escalation and pressure the oil risk premium.
The discrepancy sustains the existing $5-7 geopolitical risk premium in Brent crude prices. If independent data confirmed a surge in traffic, that premium could erode by 50% quickly. Continued low counts with high Iranian claims signal a deadlock, keeping volatility elevated. Markets ultimately price verified supply flows, not rhetoric, making third-party analytics from firms like Kpler critical for price discovery.
The 2019 Tanker Wars involved physical attacks, spiking Brent crude by 15% in two weeks. The current situation is a war of narratives, not munitions, producing a more muted 4% price move. The 1980s 'Tanker War' during the Iran-Iraq conflict saw 451 commercial vessels attacked. The present activity involves inspections and harassment, not overt strikes, keeping insurance costs lower than 2019 peaks.
Peak traffic occurred in 2017, with over 100 daily transits. The long-term average from 2015-2024 is 89 vessels per day. The current 78-vessel average is a 12% decline from that norm. The last major closure was a theoretical Iranian threat in 2012; the strait has never been fully blocked. Even during peak tensions, traffic typically falls by 20-30%, not 100%.
Iran’s unverified claims of open straits traffic contradict observable data, sustaining a risk premium that outweighs current physical disruption.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.
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