Hummus Joins UK Inflation Basket

Hummus has been formally recognised as a mainstream grocery category in the UK after being selected for inclusion in the basket of items used to measure consumer price inflation, a move reported by The Guardian on 22 March 2026. The Guardian notes UK consumers now spend about £170m a year on hummus, a product that arrived on supermarket shelves in the late 1980s and has since transitioned from niche ethnic offering to everyday condiment (The Guardian, Mar 22, 2026). The addition of hummus to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measurement set is largely symbolic from a GDP perspective but meaningful for category economics, signalling that the product has achieved the penetration and purchase frequency required for representative sampling. For investors and policymakers, the change is a reminder that diet diversification and product innovation can shift consumption baskets and thus the construction of headline inflation over time. This note unpacks the data underpinning the decision, quantifies the category's scale relative to the wider grocery market, and assesses implications for grocery retailers, suppliers and inflation measurement.

Context

The ONS constructs consumer price indices using a representative 'basket' of goods and services derived from household expenditure surveys and retail transaction data; items are rotated into the basket when they become sufficiently common in household spending patterns. The Guardian reported the hummus inclusion on 22 March 2026, citing the ONS selection process as recognising the product's ubiquity at British mealtimes (The Guardian, Mar 22, 2026). Historically, the CPI basket has broadened to reflect new consumption patterns — for example, cordless headphones and plant-based meat substitutes were incorporated into measurement frameworks in prior years as their market penetration rose. Inclusion of a product is not the same as assigning a large weight: it reflects representativeness for sampling and price tracking rather than an expectation that hummus will materially drive headline inflation on its own.

The socio-demographic factors behind hummus' rise are instructive. The product crossed into mainstream retail in the late 1980s and has benefited from three structural trends: rising at-home consumption of convenience foods, broader adoption of Mediterranean and Middle Eastern cuisines, and expansion of private-label alternatives that lowered price points. These shifts are long-term and aggregate — behavioural change that began decades ago has culminated in sufficient spend concentration to warrant ONS attention. The broader point is that CPI composition evolves with consumption; items that were once exotic can become staples and therefore part of the statistical architecture that tracks inflation.

For macro-watchers, the hummus decision is a microcosm of a larger dynamic: small, frequent purchases with low unit values can cumulatively influence the measured cost of living if they are widespread. The immediate macro impact is limited because the category's share of household expenditure remains small relative to core CPI components such as housing, energy, and transport. Nonetheless, for consumer staples companies and grocery retailers the inclusion matters because it raises the profile of a growth category that now sits inside official measurement processes and therefore inside inflation narratives that affect consumer sentiment and purchasing behaviour.

Data Deep Dive

The headline specific data point driving attention is the £170m annual UK spend on hummus reported by The Guardian (Mar 22, 2026). That figure provides a basis for estimating the category's footprint. If one uses a conservative estimate of the UK grocery market at approximately £210bn per year (Fazen Capital estimate, using Kantar-style retail tracking), hummus accounts for roughly 0.08% of total grocery spend (calculation: £170m/£210bn = 0.00081). This is an order-of-magnitude calculation intended to illustrate scale: hummus is commercially meaningful for suppliers and adjacent categories but remains a small line item in aggregate household budgets.

The temporal arc is also relevant: hummus' presence on supermarket shelves since the late 1980s means roughly 35 years of category maturation up to 2025–26 (The Guardian, Mar 22, 2026). That multi-decade adoption timeline contrasts with faster-adopting categories such as energy drinks or plant-based burgers, which achieved national distribution in a shorter window during the 2010s. The incremental growth in hummus has therefore been steady rather than explosive, which supports the idea that inclusion in the inflation basket is recognition of sustained penetration rather than a response to a short-term sales spike.

From a price-tracking perspective, inclusion will require statisticians to collect regular retail prices for representative hummus SKUs across channels and regions. ONS typically sources prices from a mix of field collection and scanner data; the integration of hummus into the index means the product will contribute to the 'food and non-alcoholic beverages' component and be subject to the same seasonal and promotional volatility that characterises chilled dips and spreads. For context, food CPI volatility can be materially higher than headline CPI in the near-term due to supply-side factors (harvests, input costs) and retail promotions, even if its long-run weight is smaller.

Sector Implications

Retailers: For supermarkets and discounters, hummus' inclusion in the inflation basket elevates a category where private label has already been competitive on price and margin. Major grocers that prioritise chilled deli innovation and SKU rationalisation stand to benefit from increased consumer traffic to this part of the store, while discounters may use price leadership in hummus to anchor promotional campaigns. Historically, private label penetration in dips and spreads reduces headline retail margins but increases basket value and shopper frequency; hummus follows that playbook and will be monitored as a margin and loyalty lever by trading teams.

Suppliers: For branded manufacturers, becoming part of an officially tracked basket increases the transparency of their pricing dynamics and the public visibility of any price adjustments. If a branded supplier raises prices above private-label alternatives, the competitive effect is immediate in a low-ticket category. The category's £170m revenue base suggests room for consolidation, product premiumisation (flavoured lines, organic), and export potential; yet margin capture will depend on pricing power and input-cost management in a sector where chickpea commodity prices and packaging costs matter.

Macro players and policy: While the direct contribution of hummus to headline CPI will be small, the symbolic effect is larger: the ONS' decision signals to policymakers and market participants that dietary shifts and new convenience products can alter the composition of consumption baskets. This matters for fiscal indexing mechanisms and benefits uprating formulas that reference CPI or CPIH. Pension and wage indexation schemes that rely on official inflation measures will indirectly incorporate price moves in newly included food items over time, albeit with small weights initially.

Risk Assessment

Measurement risk: The primary technical risk is measurement noise introduced by a low-cost, frequently discounted product. Hummus experiences promotional cycles, multipack discounts and regional price dispersion that can increase month-to-month CPI volatility for the 'food and non-alcoholic beverages' component. If a product's price shows high variability, statisticians must ensure representative SKU selection and robust sample sizes to avoid overstating short-term movements. That technical challenge is manageable but material for index precision.

Supply-side risks: Input costs for hummus—chiefly chickpeas, oils and packaging—are exposed to agricultural volatility and global commodity cycles. A poor harvest in major chickpea-producing regions or spikes in sunflower oil prices (used in some preparations) could transmit to retail prices and therefore to the measured component. Historical episodes of crop disruption show how niche categories can briefly experience outsized price swings relative to staples.

Consumer behaviour risks: A shift in shopper preferences—toward DIY hummus or private-label alternatives—could compress retail prices even as unit sales rise, muting the category's inflationary signal. Conversely, premiumisation and brand-led innovation could sustain higher price points. The net effect on measured prices depends on the balance between volume growth and price moves, which is an empirical question ONS will track through scanner data and household surveys.

Fazen Capital Perspective

Fazen Capital sees the inclusion of hummus in the CPI basket as an instructive example of structural consumption change rather than a headline macro shock. Contrarian to narratives that equate basket changes with immediate inflationary pressure, we view hummus' entry as a slow-burn signal: it documents decades of consumer adaptation and modest category economics, not a sudden price-driver. From an investment-information perspective, the more interesting implication is competitive dynamics at the retail and supplier level. Hummus' £170m market size (The Guardian, Mar 22, 2026) is large enough to justify category-specific strategies — SKU innovation, margin management and promotional optimisation — but too small to materially reweight macro exposures.

We estimate, by way of illustration, that hummus represents roughly 0.08% of total UK grocery spend when using a conservative £210bn grocery market base (Fazen Capital estimate derived from retail tracking proxies). That calculation suggests the product's immediate macro contribution is limited, but the sector-level impact—on supplier earnings, shelf-space allocation, and private-label strategy—can be meaningful. Investors should therefore watch retailer-level category performance and margins rather than expect a direct feed-through to headline CPI forecasts.

For institutional portfolios, the relevant risk-to-return considerations are in selective exposure to grocery supply chains, chilled-packaging suppliers, and branded producers with scale in the dips category. The ONS decision reduces informational opacity by making hummus prices part of public statistics, which in turn improves price transparency for these small-cap supplier segments. We encourage scrutiny of retail trading statements and supplier margin narratives over the next four quarters to detect any discernible reshaping of earnings driven by hummus demand and pricing.

Outlook

In the near term, the quantitative effect of hummus on UK CPI will be marginal: its weight in household budgets is small and the product will be one among many items in the 'food and non-alcoholic beverages' component. Over a multi-year horizon, however, the inclusion illustrates a steady trend of diet diversification and the steady rise of chilled convenience products into the mainstream. If hummus follows the path of other adopted categories, it will see incremental SKU proliferation, a mix-shift toward private label in value-conscious segments, and pockets of premiumisation in urban and specialist channels.

For policymakers and analysts, the key monitoring points are price dispersion across channels, promotion frequency, and input-cost pass-through from commodities and packaging. The ONS will publish weightings and detail on how the product is sampled; those technical disclosures will determine how much hummus contributes to headline month-on-month movements. Practically, investors with exposure to grocery supply chains should incorporate a modest scenario analysis that reflects both promotional-led price compression and premiumisation-led price uplift.

Longer-term, the broader message is that inflation measurement is an adaptive process that will incorporate new consumption patterns as they attain scale. Hummus is the latest example, but it will not be the last: watch for next-generation convenience items to follow into official indices as household behaviour evolves.

Bottom Line

Hummus' inclusion in the UK inflation basket is more a recognition of sustained consumption change than a macro inflection point: the category's £170m annual spend marks commercial maturity but represents a very small share of household budgets. Investors should focus on retailer and supplier dynamics rather than expect a material change in headline inflation.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

FAQ

Q: Will hummus inclusion materially change UK CPI readings? A: No — given the category's small share of total grocery spend (Fazen Capital estimate ~0.08% of groceries using a £210bn market base), its direct impact on headline CPI is limited. The change primarily improves granularity in the 'food and non-alcoholic beverages' component and may slightly affect short-term volatility if the product experiences promotional swings.

Q: How should investors track the effects of this change? A: Monitor retailer category performance, supplier margins, and ONS technical notes on SKU selection and weightings. Look for evidence of either price compression (via promotions and private-label competition) or premiumisation (via new SKUs and brand-led pricing). For broader context on consumer staples and inflation measurement, see our analysis on consumer staples and on inflation measurement.

Q: Is hummus' rise unique? A: Not entirely — it follows a pattern where once-niche foods (e.g., plant-based alternatives, certain ethnic ready meals) become mainstream through distribution, price parity and changing tastes. The distinguishing factor for hummus is its long adoption arc since the late 1980s, which demonstrates that some category shifts unfold over decades rather than years.