Hormuz Oil Transit Resumes as 60-Day US-Iran Truce Takes Effect
2h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
strait-of-hormuzoil-supply
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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The flow of oil tankers through the Strait of Iran Deal Lifts Oil Tanker Stocks, Brent Drops Below $82">Hormuz has resumed in earnest following the implementation of an interim peace accord between the United States and Iran. The 60-day ceasefire, formalized last week, has de-escalated a months-long standoff that saw Iranian naval forces disrupt commercial shipping lanes. Tellimer Managing Director Hasnain Malik spoke to Bloomberg on June 19, 2026, noting the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) now faces a critical planning window to address persistent strategic vulnerabilities. This narrow waterway carries nearly 21 million barrels of oil per day, representing about 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption.
The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz is unmatched in global energy security. Any significant disruption, like the September 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities, can trigger an immediate 15-20% spike in Brent crude prices. The last major blockade occurred in 2018 when Iran threatened to close the strait, leading to a sustained period of elevated war risk premiums on Middle Eastern crude.
The current macro backdrop features global oil inventories at five-year lows. The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index climbed to 48 in early June, its highest level since the 2022 Ukraine invasion. This reflects acute market sensitivity to physical supply shocks from the Middle East.
The catalyst for the current respite is a tangible, albeit temporary, diplomatic achievement. A formalized 60-day interim agreement was reached after covert negotiations mediated by Oman. The deal includes verified pullbacks of certain Iranian naval assets from key maritime chokepoints. This created the immediate operational space for tanker traffic to normalize.
Shipping data confirms the immediate impact of the ceasefire. Daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 16.8 vessels in the week prior to the deal. In the first five days post-agreement, that figure has risen to 22.1 vessels, a 31.5% increase.
| Metric | Pre-Deal (June 10-16) | Post-Deal (June 20-24) |
|---|---|---|
| Avg. Daily Crude Tanker Transits | 8.2 | 11.5 |
| Brent Crude Front-Month Price | $94.20/barrel | $89.80/barrel |
| Tanker War Risk Premium (per voyage) | $1.2 million | $0.8 million |
The price of Brent crude futures for August delivery fell 4.7% from its June 18 peak of $94.20 to trade at $89.80 on June 24. This decline contrasts with the year-to-date performance of the S&P 500 Energy Sector Index, which remains up 5.3% versus the broader S&P 500's 8.1% gain. The volume of crude stored on floating tankers near Fujairah has dropped by 18% to 12 million barrels as shipments resume.
The primary market effect is a normalization of risk premiums embedded in Middle Eastern crude. This directly benefits European and Asian refiners like TotalEnergies (TTE) and Reliance Industries (RELIANCE.NS), reducing their input costs. Integrated oil majors with significant downstream exposure, such as BP (BP), also gain from improved refining margins as crude volatility eases.
Conversely, the immediate price pullback pressures pure-play exploration and production companies operating outside the region, such as Devon Energy (DVN), which lose the geopolitical tailwind. The reduced risk premium also weighs on defense and maritime security stocks that had surged on escalation fears, including companies like Lockheed Martin (LMT).
Acknowledging a key limitation, analyst Hasnain Malik notes the truce does not resolve the underlying nuclear or regional proxy conflicts. It merely pauses overt hostilities. Market positioning shows hedge funds have begun reducing net-long positions in crude futures, with the CFTC reporting a 12% reduction in managed money long contracts last week. Flow data indicates capital rotating from energy into previously oversold industrial and materials sectors.
Two specific catalysts will determine the durability of the calm. The first is the official 60-day review of the interim deal set for August 18, 2026. The second is the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for July 5, where members will assess market stability and potentially adjust production quotas.
Key levels to monitor include the $88 support level for Brent crude, which represents its 100-day moving average. A sustained break below this could indicate markets are pricing in prolonged stability. Conversely, a rise in the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index back above 40 would signal re-emerging fears. The performance of Qatari and Saudi sovereign credit default swaps will serve as a barometer for regional risk sentiment.
The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was a permanent multilateral agreement focused on nuclear enrichment limits, backed by extensive sanctions relief. This 2026 arrangement is a strictly bilateral, temporary military de-escalation pact between the US and Iran. It lacks the economic components of the JCPOA and is explicitly designed as a confidence-building measure, not a final settlement. Its immediate goal is preventing accidental conflict, not resolving political disputes.
Reduced friction in the Strait of Hormuz lowers the transportation and insurance cost component of delivered oil, estimated to be as high as $3-5 per barrel during peak tensions. This provides marginal relief to headline inflation in oil-importing nations like India and Japan. For every sustained $10 drop in Brent crude, global consumer price index forecasts can be revised down by 0.3-0.5 percentage points over the following quarter, easing pressure on central banks.
Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have the highest direct exposure due to their massive liquefied natural gas and crude export terminals located directly on the strait. Over 95% of Qatar's export revenue transits the waterway. Kuwait and Bahrain are critically dependent on unimpeded shipping for nearly all imports, including food. Saudi Arabia has greater redundancy via its Petroline pipeline to the Red Sea, but its primary export terminals at Ras Tanura and Ju'aymah remain in the Gulf.
The 60-day truce provides a narrow, critical window for energy markets to adjust and for Gulf states to advance economic diversification plans that reduce their strategic dependence on a single chokepoint.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.
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