Strait of Hormuz Crisis Ignites $120 Billion Pipeline Race
1h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
energy-securitymiddle-east
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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A multi-year strategic crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a massive realignment of global energy infrastructure, driving over $120 billion in new pipeline investment across the Middle East and its allied corridors. Finance.yahoo.com reported on June 21, 2026, that the regional spending surge aims to bypass vulnerable maritime chokepoints and secure crude oil export routes for key Gulf producers. The capital commitment represents a 70% increase from pre-crisis five-year pipeline budgets, signaling a permanent shift in energy security calculus.
The current infrastructure boom finds a direct precedent in the 2011-2015 period following Iran's threats to close the Strait. That era saw the accelerated completion of the 1.65 million barrel-per-day (bpd) Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to the Fujairah port on the Gulf of Oman, bypassing the Strait entirely. The current macro backdrop features Brent crude prices consistently above $85 per barrel, providing the fiscal space for Gulf national oil companies to fund capital-intensive projects despite higher global financing costs.
The immediate catalyst is a prolonged series of asymmetric attacks on commercial shipping and energy infrastructure within and near the Strait of Hormuz, degrading insurer confidence and elevating war risk premiums. This has compressed the effective export capacity for producers reliant on the waterway, creating an urgent economic imperative to develop alternative overland routes. The crisis has united regional competitors, including Saudi Arabia and Iraq, around a shared infrastructure security agenda previously hampered by political disputes.
The total committed capital for new pipeline projects across the region now exceeds $120 billion. Saudi Aramco leads with a $48 billion commitment to the 5 million bpd East-West Pipeline expansion and a new southern route to the Yemeni port of Nishtun. The UAE's ADNOC has allocated $32 billion for the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline duplication and the new Mussafah pipeline corridor.
Iran is accelerating its 1 million bpd Goreh-Jask pipeline project with an additional $15 billion in funding. Iraq's long-delayed $8 billion pipeline project to Jordan's Aqaba port has been reactivated with construction timelines halved. The table below shows the change in projected export capacity via pipelines for key Gulf producers before and after the current investment cycle.
| Country | Pre-Crisis Pipeline Capacity (bpd) | Post-Investment Pipeline Capacity (bpd) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 7.2 million | 11.5 million | +60% |
| UAE | 1.65 million | 4.0 million | +142% |
| Iran | 0.5 million | 1.5 million | +200% |
| Iraq | 0.75 million | 1.8 million | +140% |
These figures compare to the Strait of Hormuz's total daily oil flow of approximately 21 million bpd, which carries a war risk premium now exceeding $5 per barrel.
The direct beneficiaries are engineering and construction firms with established regional footprints. TechnipFMC and Larsen & Toubro (L&T) have secured over $18 billion in new contracts year-to-date. Pipeline valve and control specialists like Emerson Electric (EMR) and Flowserve (FLS) report order backlogs extending into 2028. The surge in capital expenditure is a net positive for crude oil benchmarks by reducing immediate supply disruption premiums, but it pressures long-dated futures prices by ensuring more reliable future supply.
A key counter-argument is that massive overland infrastructure presents its own security challenges and could simply shift targets for asymmetric attacks from tankers to fixed pipelines. the multi-year construction timelines mean the immediate seaborne risk remains elevated. Institutional positioning data shows heavy flows into energy infrastructure ETFs like the Global X MLP & Energy Infrastructure ETF (MLPX), while hedge funds are establishing pairs trades, long pipeline builders and short tanker owners like Frontline (FRO) and Euronav (EURN).
The next major catalyst is the final investment decision on the proposed $20 billion trans-Arabian pipeline connecting Saudi fields directly to the Red Sea, expected by Q4 2026. Key technical resistance for the FTSE Global Energy Infrastructure Index is the 1,250 level; a sustained break above would confirm the bullish trend. Market participants will monitor the Q3 2026 earnings calls of Schlumberger (SLB) and Halliburton (HAL) for guidance revisions tied to regional drilling activity supporting pipeline feeds.
The level of war risk premiums for Gulf of Oman loadings versus Red Sea loadings will serve as a real-time barometer of perceived success. A compression below $1 per barrel would signal the market is pricing in effective redundancy. The OPEC+ meeting scheduled for December 2026 will provide critical insight into how producers view their future export flexibility and its impact on production quotas.
The infrastructure build-out is structurally bearish for long-dated oil futures by de-risking future supply, but bullish for near-term physical differentials for crude streams that bypass the Strait. Prices for grades like Murban and Upper Zakum, which will gain new export routes, are likely to trade at a stronger premium to Brent. Over a five-year horizon, the increased security of supply could cap price spikes during future geopolitical events, potentially lowering volatility by 15-20% compared to past crisis periods.
The scale and speed of investment most closely resemble the US strategic petroleum reserve build-out in the late 1970s following the Arab oil embargo, which allocated over $40 billion in today's dollars to stockpile crude. In terms of infrastructure, it exceeds the pace of the US shale pipeline build-out from 2010-2015. The current Middle East pipeline capital commitment is triple the annual global average for oil and gas pipeline spending from 2015-2020, highlighting its exceptional nature.
Yes, but indirectly. The massive capital commitment to fossil fuel infrastructure may temporarily divert investment from renewable energy projects in the region, potentially delaying green hydrogen and solar mega-projects by 12-18 months. However, it also accelerates investment in the power grid and associated infrastructure, which can later be leveraged for renewable integration. The focus on overland energy transport also boosts the economic case for regional electricity interconnectors, a key enabler for solar and wind power sharing.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis is permanently reshaping global oil logistics through a historic, security-driven infrastructure build-out.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.
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