Economic Calendar: Retail Sales & Fed Clues on May 15

The US economic calendar for Friday, May 15, 2026, will provide a critical update on the health of the American consumer and industrial sectors. An economic calendar published on May 15, 2026, shows that the day's primary event is the release of the April Retail Sales report at 8:30 AM ET. This data is a key barometer of consumer spending, which accounts for approximately 70% of US economic activity. Markets will also closely monitor industrial production and consumer sentiment figures for further clues on the economy's second-quarter trajectory.

What to Expect from April Retail Sales

The April Retail Sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau is the most anticipated data point of the day. The consensus forecast among economists is for a headline increase of 0.4% month-over-month, a rebound from the previous month's more subdued reading. This figure will offer the first significant insight into consumer resilience at the start of the second quarter.

Investors will pay special attention to the retail sales control group figure. This metric, which excludes volatile components like automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, feeds directly into Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculations. A strong control group reading would suggest underlying economic momentum and could influence Federal Reserve policy.

How Industrial Production Data Factors In

At 9:15 AM ET, the Federal Reserve will release its report on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for April. This data provides a measure of output at factories, mines, and utilities. The market expectation is for a modest 0.2% increase in production, signaling steady but not spectacular growth in the manufacturing sector.

Capacity utilization, which measures the extent to which factories are being used, is expected to hold near 78.5%. A figure significantly above or below this level could indicate either inflationary pressures or economic slack, respectively. The data offers a counterpoint to the consumer-focused retail sales report, providing a more complete picture of the US economy.

Why Michigan Consumer Sentiment Matters

The final major release of the day is the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May, scheduled for 10:00 AM ET. This survey-based report gauges the confidence level of US consumers. The index is projected to come in at a reading of 76.5, reflecting cautious optimism among households.

Of particular importance within this report are the inflation expectations components. The 1-year and 5-year inflation outlooks are monitored closely by Federal Reserve officials as an indicator of whether inflation expectations are becoming unanchored. An unexpected spike in these figures could trigger a hawkish reaction in bond markets, even if the headline sentiment number is stable.

Are There Risks to the Consensus Forecasts?

While economists' forecasts provide a baseline, there are always risks of a surprise. The retail sales data, for instance, is subject to significant seasonal adjustments that can sometimes distort the underlying trend. An unusually late Easter holiday in April could have shifted some spending patterns, potentially leading to a number that is stronger or weaker than the 0.4% consensus.

one-off events can impact industrial production figures. Unplanned shutdowns at major auto plants or disruptions in the energy sector could skew the national data. Traders must consider these limitations and acknowledge that the initial data releases are often subject to revision in subsequent months, altering the final economic narrative.

Q: What time are the key economic releases on Friday?

A: The key data releases are staggered throughout the morning. The Retail Sales report is first at 8:30 AM ET. This is followed by the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report at 9:15 AM ET. The final major release is the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 10:00 AM ET.

Q: Which data point typically has the most impact on the US Dollar?

A: The Retail Sales report generally has the most immediate impact on the US Dollar and other financial markets. This is because consumer spending is the largest component of the US economy. The "control group" sub-component is particularly influential as it is a direct input for GDP models, making it a pure signal of underlying consumer demand.

Q: What is the difference between the headline and core retail sales numbers?

A: The headline retail sales number includes all categories, making it a comprehensive measure of consumer spending. However, it can be volatile due to large swings in auto and gasoline sales. Core retail sales figures, such as the one excluding autos and gas, or the control group, are designed to smooth out this volatility and provide a clearer view of fundamental spending trends.

Bottom Line

Friday's economic data will provide a crucial snapshot of consumer health and industrial activity, shaping market expectations for second-quarter GDP growth.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.