ConocoPhillips Shares Fall 7% Over Seven Sessions on Oil Glut
0h ago|3 min readQuick Read
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
conocophillipsshares
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
Trades XAUUSD 24/5 on autopilot. Verified Myfxbook performance. Free forever.
Risk warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The majority of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. Vortex HFT is informational software — not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Shares of ConocoPhillips (COP) have declined for seven consecutive trading sessions, closing at $113.88 as of 17:36 UTC today, a loss of 1.09% on the day. This extended sell-off, reported by SeekingAlpha, has pushed the stock through a recent range of $112.64 to $114.55. The consistent downward pressure reflects a broader shift in sentiment across the energy sector driven by swelling global crude inventories and concerns over demand.
The current seven-day losing streak for ConocoPhillips is its longest since a nine-day slide in October 2024, triggered by a similar mid-cycle inventory glut. That event saw COP shares fall 12% from peak to trough. The present macro backdrop features U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude trading below the $80-per-barrel threshold, a level that pressures the free cash flow projections of high-cost producers. The immediate catalyst for the current weakness is the latest weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, showing a larger-than-anticipated 8 million-barrel build in commercial crude stocks. This data, coupled with reports of increased exports from key OPEC+ members, has reinforced market fears of a supply overhang persisting into the third quarter.
The ConocoPhillips sell-off has erased approximately 5.1% of its market value over the seven-day period, translating to a loss of nearly $12 billion in market capitalization. The stock's daily trading volume has averaged 25% above its 30-day norm during the downturn, indicating elevated institutional distribution. This underperformance is stark against the broader market, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) down 4.2% over the same period and the S&P 500 essentially flat. A comparison of major integrated oil peers shows divergent pressure.
| Company | Ticker | 7-Day Performance | Key Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| ConocoPhillips | COP | -5.1% | $113.88 |
| Exxon Mobil | XOM | -3.8% | $118.50 |
| Chevron | CVX | -2.9% | $165.75 |
The table illustrates that ConocoPhillips, with its heavier weighting toward pure-play exploration and production, is bearing the brunt of the sell-off relative to more diversified integrated peers.
The sustained decline in ConocoPhillips signals a rotation out of oil-levered equities and into defensive energy infrastructure. The Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP), which holds pipeline operators, has gained 1.5% over the same seven sessions as investors seek income stability. Within the E&P subsector, high-cost shale producers like Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and EOG Resources (EOG) have underperformed COP, with losses exceeding 6%. A counter-argument exists that the sell-off is overdone given COP's strong balance sheet and low break-even costs, which could position it for aggressive acquisition if smaller rivals become distressed. Positioning data from futures markets shows managed money net-long positions in WTI crude have been cut by 15% over the past two weeks, with the flow moving into short-dated Treasury bills and healthcare equities.
The primary near-term catalyst is the next OPEC+ monitoring committee meeting scheduled for June 4, 2026. Any signal of a deeper production cut could provide a floor for crude prices and energy equities. The next U.S. CPI print on June 10 will also influence the Federal Reserve's rate path, affecting the U.S. dollar and commodity pricing. For ConocoPhillips, technical support is firm at the $110 level, which aligns with its 200-day moving average. Resistance now sits at the $115.50 level, the midpoint of its recent range. A break below $110 on heavy volume would indicate the corrective phase is deepening, likely triggering further de-risking across the sector.
The 2020 crash was a demand-driven systemic event where COP shares fell over 60% in a month. The current decline is a supply-driven correction within a longer-term cycle, with a magnitude an order of magnitude smaller. The key difference is the health of corporate balance sheets today, which are fortified by years of high cash flow, limiting immediate solvency risks.
ConocoPhillips has a variable dividend framework tied to cash flow. A prolonged period of lower oil prices would likely reduce the variable component of the payout, though the base dividend is considered secure given current cash levels. Yield-focused investors may see more stable payouts from midstream MLPs or integrated majors during this volatility.
Yes, sectors with inverted correlations to the oil price are seeing inflows. Refining margins often expand when crude input costs fall faster than refined product prices, benefiting companies like Valero Energy (VLO). Airlines also typically see fuel cost relief, though that relationship can be muddied by concurrent economic concerns affecting travel demand.
The extended decline in ConocoPhillips shares is a clear signal of institutional capital retreating from oil price exposure amid a building global supply glut.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.
Vortex HFT is our free MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor. Verified Myfxbook performance. No subscription. No fees. Trades 24/5.
Position yourself for the macro moves discussed above
Start TradingSponsored
Open a demo account in 30 seconds. No deposit required.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.