Circle Stock Rises 14% on ARK Fund Inclusion Speculation
0h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
ARK InvestCircle Internet Group
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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Circle Internet Group shares rose 14.2% on 23 May 2026, closing at $28.45. The rally followed renewed market speculation that ARK Invest may add the stock to one of its actively managed exchange-traded funds. The firm manages over $55 billion in assets across several thematic ETFs focused on disruptive innovation. A single ARK fund purchased more than $120 million worth of Coinbase shares in 2024, demonstrating its capacity to move crypto-equity prices.
ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, has historically concentrated its disruptive innovation bets on genomics, automation, and fintech. The firm made a significant foray into cryptocurrency exposure through direct holdings of Bitcoin in its ARKW fund and substantial equity positions in companies like Coinbase. The last major ARK addition of a crypto-adjacent stock occurred in Q4 2025, when the ARKW fund initiated a $85 million position in a blockchain data provider.
The current macro backdrop features a Federal Reserve holding its benchmark rate at 4.25%, with market expectations leaning toward eventual easing. This environment has typically supported risk assets, including technology and crypto-related equities. The catalyst for the Circle speculation appears to be its consistent quarterly revenue growth from USDC stablecoin interest income, which reached $450 million in Q1 2026.
The speculation was triggered by ARK's recent thematic research paper on the future of digital payments, which highlighted the growing institutional adoption of blockchain-based settlement. Circle’s USDC, with a market capitalization of $34 billion, is the dominant regulated dollar stablecoin for institutional transactions. Its partnership with BlackRock for the BUIDL tokenized fund further cemented its role in traditional finance infrastructure.
Circle’s stock price moved from $24.90 to $28.45 on 23 May, a single-day gain of 14.2%. Trading volume spiked to 18.5 million shares, over 400% above its 30-day average of 4.1 million. The company’s market capitalization increased by approximately $1.2 billion to $9.3 billion. Year-to-date, CRCL is up 42%, outperforming the NASDAQ Composite’s gain of 11% over the same period.
The company’s financial metrics show a shift toward profitability. Circle reported net income of $150 million for Q1 2026, a significant reversal from a $55 million loss in Q1 2025. Its revenue is heavily concentrated in interest income from USDC’s reserve assets, which accounted for 92% of total Q1 revenue.
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $320M | $490M | +53% |
| Net Income | ($55M) | $150M | Profit Swing |
| USDC Market Cap | $28B | $34B | +21% |
Compared to crypto exchange peer Coinbase, Circle trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18, while Coinbase trades at 24. The valuation gap reflects Circle’s narrower business model focused solely on stablecoin issuance and treasury services, versus Coinbase’s broader retail and institutional trading platform.
A potential ARK purchase would provide a significant liquidity and credibility boost for Circle, similar to the effect on Coinbase in prior years. Direct beneficiaries would likely include other public crypto infrastructure firms like Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR), as ARK’s move would signal renewed institutional validation for the sector. Private stablecoin competitors, such as Paxos, could face increased pressure to pursue public listings.
The primary risk to this thesis is regulatory. The U.S. stablecoin regulatory framework remains pending in Congress, and any restrictive legislation could cap USDC’s growth and Circle’s interest income model. ARK’s funds have experienced significant outflows in recent quarters, which may limit its capital available for new positions.
Positioning data from options markets shows a surge in call buying for CRCL, with open interest for June $30 calls rising 250%. Flow tracking indicates retail buyers were net purchasers of the stock, while some institutional desks used the rally to trim existing positions and realize gains. Short interest as a percentage of float remains elevated at 12%, suggesting continued skepticism.
The next major catalyst is ARK Invest’s daily trade publication for 27 May, which will confirm or deny any fund activity in CRCL shares. Circle’s next quarterly earnings report is scheduled for 5 August 2026, where guidance on USDC adoption and reserve composition will be critical. A key technical level to watch is the $30 resistance level, which the stock has not closed above since its IPO in December 2024.
Market participants should monitor the 50-day moving average, currently at $25.10, as a potential support zone if the speculation fades. On the macro front, the next FOMC meeting on 17 June will provide updated rate projections that influence the yield environment for Circle’s reserve assets. Any announcement regarding the passage of the U.S. stablecoin bill in the Senate Banking Committee would be a sector-wide catalyst.
Circle generates revenue primarily from interest earned on the reserves backing its USDC stablecoin. These reserves are held in short-term U.S. Treasuries and cash deposits. For Q1 2026, interest income was $450 million, comprising 92% of total revenue. The remaining revenue comes from transaction and service fees for its treasury and infrastructure products offered to businesses.
Investing in Circle stock provides exposure to the stablecoin infrastructure and traditional finance adoption of blockchain, not direct cryptocurrency price volatility. Its revenue is tied to interest rates and the scale of USDC in circulation. Bitcoin is a decentralized digital asset with a value proposition as a store of value or inflation hedge, with no underlying cash flow or corporate entity.
There is no public disclosure of ARK Invest funds holding Circle stock as of their latest 13F filing for Q1 2026. The speculation is based on thematic alignment, as ARK’s disruptive innovation funds target companies involved in fintech transformation. ARK’s research team has published analysis on digital wallets and payment systems, which often reference stablecoins.
Circle’s rally reflects a speculative bet on ARK validation, but its fundamental thesis hinges on stablecoin adoption and regulatory clarity.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.
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