Cantor Fitzgerald announced on 2 July 2026 that the prolonged downturn in digital asset markets, commonly called the crypto winter, is approaching its conclusion. Analysts cited improving on-chain fundamentals, a maturing regulatory environment, and sustained institutional interest as primary catalysts for the shift. Live market data as of 22:55 UTC today shows the NEAR token trading at $2.00 with a 24-hour trading volume of $182.66 million, suggesting consolidation despite a recent 1.73% dip. The firm's analysis points to a potential transition from a phase of capitulation to one of accumulation across major blockchain assets.
Context — why this matters now
A crypto winter is a prolonged period of depressed prices and negative sentiment following a major bull market peak. The last such cycle concluded in late 2020 after Bitcoin fell approximately 83% from its December 2017 high of nearly $20,000 to a trough near $3,200 in December 2018. That bear market lasted roughly three years before a new cycle began.
The current backdrop differs. Major global central banks have paused their aggressive interest rate hiking cycles, with the U.S. Federal Funds Target Rate holding steady within a 4.75-5.00% range since mid-2025. This stability reduces a significant headwind for speculative asset classes. Concurrently, the broad adoption of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States has created a persistent institutional bid. The trigger for Cantor's assessment appears to be a confluence of technical and on-chain metrics crossing key thresholds, indicating diminishing sell-side pressure.
Data — what the numbers show
Market data reveals specific signs of stabilization. The NEAR token commands a $2.60 billion market capitalization. Its 24-hour price change of -1.73% is notably less volatile than the double-digit daily swings characteristic of the deepest bear market phases in 2022. For comparison, the S&P 500 index has gained 4.2% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq Composite is up 6.8%, indicating a decoupling where crypto assets are no longer underperforming traditional tech equities by a wide margin.
A key metric is the realized price of Bitcoin, the average price all coins last moved on-chain, which has converged with its spot price. This convergence historically signals a market bottom. aggregate exchange reserves for major cryptocurrencies have trended downward for six consecutive months, indicating coins are moving into long-term storage. The funding rates for perpetual futures contracts have normalized near zero, eliminating the excessive use that fueled past cascading liquidations.
Analysis — what it means for markets / sectors / tickers
The shift has clear second-order effects. Publicly traded crypto-adjacent equities like Coinbase (COIN), MicroStrategy (MSTR), and CleanSpark (CLSK) typically exhibit beta of 1.5 to 2.5 against Bitcoin’s price. A sustained turn would disproportionately benefit their stock prices. Mining companies with efficient operations, such as Riot Platforms (RIOT), would see expanding profit margins as coin prices rise while energy costs remain contained. Sectors like decentralized finance (DeFi) and blockchain scaling solutions often see capital rotation from large-cap assets later in a recovery cycle.
A counter-argument is that macroeconomic deterioration, such as a resurgence of inflation forcing renewed Fed hikes, could abruptly reverse any crypto recovery. The asset class remains highly sensitive to liquidity conditions. Current positioning data from the CFTC shows leveraged funds have reduced their net short positions in Bitcoin futures to the lowest level in 18 months, a sign of declining bearish conviction. Flow data indicates net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have resumed after a period of stagnation.
Outlook — what to watch next
Two immediate catalysts will test the thesis. The next U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for 15 July 2026 will influence expectations for monetary policy and risk asset sentiment. Secondly, the quarterly earnings season for mining and trading firms begins in late July, with guidance on operational efficiency and user growth being critical.
Key technical levels for Bitcoin are the $72,000 all-time high as resistance and the $58,000 level as major support. A weekly close above $68,000 would confirm a breakout from a multi-month consolidation pattern. For Ethereum, watch the $4,000 threshold. Sustained net inflows into spot ETFs exceeding $200 million daily for a week would provide strong confirmation of renewed institutional demand.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the end of crypto winter mean for retail investors?
It typically signals a transition from high-risk, fear-driven markets to periods of growing stability and gradual price appreciation. Retail investors should note that recoveries are rarely linear; steep pullbacks remain common. The environment shifts from seeking absolute bottoms to identifying projects with sustainable fundamentals and real usage, rather than purely speculative tokens. Portfolio rebalancing away from excessive cash holdings becomes a more common strategy.
How does this analysis compare to other major bank forecasts?
Cantor Fitzgerald's view aligns with a growing consensus among sell-side analysts, though the timing differs. Goldman Sachs published research in June 2026 highlighting improved blockchain network activity but stopped short of declaring the bear market over. JPMorgan has cautioned that regulatory clarity, particularly on the classification of certain tokens, remains a prerequisite for a full-scale bull market. The divergence centers on the weight given to on-chain data versus traditional macroeconomic indicators.
What is the historical performance of crypto after a declared winter ends?
Following the 2018-2020 winter, Bitcoin's price increased over 500% in the subsequent 12 months. Alternative layer-1 blockchain tokens like Solana and Avalanche saw gains exceeding 3,000% in the same period as capital sought high-growth narratives. However, each cycle features different leading sectors; past performance is not indicative of future results. The introduction of spot ETFs fundamentally changes market structure, potentially leading to a less volatile but more sustained uptrend compared to previous cycles.
Bottom Line
Cantor Fitzgerald's call marks a significant inflection point in market sentiment, backed by quantifiable on-chain and derivatives data.
