Canada to Build 10 Nuclear Reactors, First Expansion in 30 Years
1h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
nuclear-energycanada-energy
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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The Canadian federal government announced a plan to build up to 10 new nuclear reactors across four provinces on June 22, 2026. This marks the country's first significant push for new large-scale nuclear capacity since the Darlington station in Ontario was completed in 1993. The announcement formally initiates a procurement process targeting an initial commitment for the first units by late 2027, with construction timelines extending into the 2040s. This policy shift is aimed at meeting projected electricity demand growth of over 50% by 2050 while maintaining its 2035 grid decarbonization target.
Canada has not commissioned a new large-scale nuclear reactor since the Bruce Unit 8 came online in Ontario in 1986, though the Darlington project finished construction later. The Canadian Energy Regulator projected in its 2023 report that the nation's electricity demand will rise from approximately 640 TWh in 2023 to over 1,000 TWh by 2050. This demand surge is driven by industrial electrification, population growth, and data center expansion.
The immediate catalyst for the policy shift is the imminent retirement of coal-fired generation in provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan by 2030. Concurrently, existing nuclear units, which provide about 15% of Canada's electricity, face age-related retirements starting in the 2030s. The 2025 Federal Budget included a $7.5 billion fund for strategic clean energy infrastructure, which now provides a financial anchor for the nuclear plan. The policy directly counters a decade of uncertainty where natural gas was seen as the primary bridge fuel.
Canada currently operates 19 commercial nuclear reactors with a combined capacity of 13.6 gigawatts (GW). The new plan targets an additional 8-10 GW of capacity, effectively increasing the national nuclear fleet by 60-75%. The four provinces named in the initiative are Ontario, New Brunswick, Saskatchewan, and Alberta. Ontario, which already generates 60% of its power from nuclear, will host at least four new units to replace aging capacity and support industrial growth.
| Metric | Before Announcement (2025) | After Full Buildout (2040s Target) |
|---|---|---|
| National Nuclear Capacity | 13.6 GW | ~22 GW |
| Nuclear Share of Generation | ~15% | Targeted at 20-25% |
| Provinces with Nuclear Assets | 2 (ON, NB) | 4 (ON, NB, SK, AB) |
The project's capital cost is estimated at $15-20 billion per GW of capacity installed based on recent global benchmarks. This implies a total project value ranging from $120 billion to $200 billion over two decades. For comparison, the total market capitalization of the Canadian utilities sector (TSX Capped Utilities Index) is approximately $180 billion.
The announcement creates a multi-decade capital expenditure tailwind for firms in the nuclear supply chain. Primary beneficiaries are reactor vendors like SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. (TSX: SNC), which holds Candu reactor technology rights, and engineering-procurement-construction firms. Uranium producers like Cameco Corp. (TSX: CCO), the world's largest publicly traded uranium company, see a direct demand uplift from a long-term domestic customer. Provincial Crown corporations like Ontario Power Generation and SaskPower will lead development, requiring significant debt issuance.
A key risk is execution. Large-scale nuclear projects globally have a history of cost overruns and delays, which could strain provincial balance sheets and lead to consumer rate increases. The plan also assumes sustained political support across multiple election cycles. The counter-argument is that distributed renewables and grid-scale storage could meet demand more flexibly and at lower cost, though they face land-use and intermittency challenges.
Positioning data from the TSX shows early institutional flow into the utilities sector on the announcement day. Trading volume in SNC-Lavalin shares was 220% above its 30-day average, and Cameco volume spiked 180%. Short interest in natural gas-focused utilities like ATCO Ltd. (TSX: ACO.X) increased slightly, reflecting a market view that nuclear expansion could displace future gas-fired generation.
The first concrete catalyst is the release of the federal request for proposals (RFP) for the initial reactor units, expected by Q4 2026. Provincial environmental assessments and site selection studies will follow in 2027. Investors should monitor the Q3 2026 earnings calls of major utilities like Ontario Power Generation's parent, Ontario Power Generation Inc., for capital guidance.
Key levels to watch include the spot price of uranium, which currently trades near $86 per pound. Sustained moves above $90 per pound would signal tightness in the fuel market as utilities secure long-term contracts. For engineering stocks, the 200-day moving average will be a critical support level; a sustained break above it on high volume would confirm a structural bullish trend. The performance of the TSX Capped Utilities Index relative to the broader TSX Composite will indicate sector-specific capital allocation.
Financing will use a hybrid model. Federal loans and loan guarantees from the Canada Infrastructure Bank will cover a portion. Provincial Crown corporations will issue long-term debt, likely green bonds, to fund their equity share. Ultimately, ratepayers in each province will repay the capital through electricity rates over the 60-year asset life, following the regulated utility cost-of-service model. This differs from renewable projects which often use tax equity and power purchase agreements.
The policy supports a dual-technology approach. Ontario and New Brunswick will likely deploy large-scale Generation III+ pressurized heavy-water reactors, an evolution of the existing Candu design. Saskatchewan and Alberta, seeking smaller, more modular solutions, are evaluating small modular reactors (SMRs). GE Hitachi's BWRX-300 SMR design has already received preliminary regulatory approvals in Ontario, positioning it as a front-runner for western provinces.
The nuclear plan creates both competitive and complementary dynamics. It directly competes for future electricity generation share that would have gone to natural gas plants, particularly in Alberta's post-coal grid. Conversely, it provides a large-scale, clean baseload power source for energy-intensive oil sands operations seeking to lower their carbon intensity. Some major oil sands producers are considering partnerships for SMRs to supply steam and power, which could create a new customer segment for nuclear.
Canada's nuclear expansion is a 30-year structural shift in energy policy that will reallocate over $120 billion in capital and reshape its power grid.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.
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