Bloomberg Economics Forecasts US Jobs Report for June 2026
1h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
nonfarm-payrollsfederal-reserve
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong provided a detailed preview of the upcoming US employment situation report during an appearance on "Bloomberg Real Yield" on June 4, 2026. The analysis outlines specific expectations for job creation and wage growth, delivering critical intelligence for markets ahead of the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting. The nonfarm payrolls data, scheduled for release on Friday, is a pivotal input for interest rate forecasts and bond market direction.
The May 2026 jobs report showed a significant cooling with only 120,000 jobs added, missing consensus estimates of 180,000. That report contributed to heightened market volatility and a 15 basis point drop in the 2-year Treasury yield as traders priced in increased odds of a Fed rate cut. The current macroeconomic backdrop features the Federal Funds rate holding steady at 4.75%-5.00% after a prolonged pause, with core PCE inflation moderating to 2.4% year-over-year. The catalyst for intense focus on the June report is its proximity to the Fed's June 17-18 FOMC meeting, where officials have signaled data-dependency. A second consecutive weak report would likely cement expectations for an immediate policy easing cycle, while a strong rebound could validate the Fed's patient stance.
Bloomberg Economics projects the US economy added 160,000 nonfarm payrolls in June, closely aligning with the consensus Wall Street forecast of 165,000. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.0%, just above the cycle low of 3.8% recorded in March 2026. Average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% month-over-month, translating to a 4.1% annual increase, a slight deceleration from the previous 4.3% reading.
| Metric | May 2026 Actual | June 2026 Bloomberg Forecast | Consensus Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrolls | +120,000 | +160,000 | +165,000 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| Avg. Hourly Earnings (YoY) | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% |
The 12-month average for payroll gains now stands at 155,000, a notable slowdown from the 250,000 average observed throughout 2025. The labor force participation rate for prime-age workers (25-54) remains a key metric to watch, having stabilized at 83.5%.
A payroll print near 160,000 would likely be interpreted as Goldilocks for equity markets, supporting economic stability without forcing further Fed tightening. Sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as real estate (XLRE) and technology (XLK), would benefit from stabilized or lower yields. The 10-year Treasury yield, currently at 4.20%, could test support at the 4.15% level on confirmation of moderate wage growth. A significant risk to this outlook is an upside surprise in average hourly earnings; a print of 0.4% or higher could trigger a rapid repricing of Fed expectations, pushing yields higher and weighing on growth stocks. Institutional flow data indicates asset managers have been increasing duration exposure in anticipation of softer data, while systematic funds maintain neutral equity positioning.
The immediate market reaction will set the tone for trading ahead of the June 17-18 FOMC meeting and the subsequent press conference from Chair Powell. The Consumer Price Index report for May, due on June 11, will provide the final major data point influencing the Fed's decision. Key technical levels for the S&P 500 include near-term resistance at 5,600 and support at the 50-day moving average of 5,450. For the US Dollar Index (DXY), a break below 104.00 would signal strengthening conviction in a dovish Fed pivot, particularly against currencies like the EUR/USD.
The jobs report directly influences the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates closely follow. A weaker-than-expected report suggesting a slowing economy typically causes bond yields to fall, leading to lower mortgage rates. Conversely, strong wage growth data can push yields and mortgage costs higher as it signals persistent inflationary pressures. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate currently tracks about 170 basis points above the 10-year yield.
The Sahm Rule is a recession indicator that triggers when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low over the previous 12 months. The current three-month average is 4.03%, only 0.23 points above the recent low, so the rule is not signaling an imminent recession. The indicator has accurately preceded every US recession since 1970 without a false positive.
Interest-rate-sensitive sectors like utilities (XLU) and homebuilders (ITB) experience the largest price swings on jobs report surprises. Strong data hurts these sectors via higher yields, while weak data provides a tailwind. Conversely, financials (XLF), particularly banks, often benefit from stronger data as it implies a healthier economy and better loan demand, partially offsetting the impact of higher rates on their net interest margins.
The June jobs report will calibrate Fed policy expectations, with a 160k payroll gain likely sustaining a neutral stance.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.
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