Bitcoin Tops $65,000 After US Jobs Data Misses Forecast by 103,000
15h ago|5 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
bitcoinfed-rate-hike
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
Trades XAUUSD on autopilot. Verified Myfxbook performance. Free forever.
Risk warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The majority of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. AiX is informational software — not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Bitcoin traded above $65,000 on August 7, 2026, following the release of U.S. nonfarm payrolls data that showed a decline of 23,000 jobs for July. The reported job losses, which missed economist forecasts for an 80,000 gain, led traders to significantly reduce expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September. The move represents a sharp reversal from recent price action as market participants reassess the trajectory of monetary policy. As of 14:19 UTC today, Bitcoin's price is $64,806, with a 24-hour gain of 0.65%. The cryptocurrency's 24-hour trading volume stands at $20.98 billion, underscoring the heightened activity surrounding the macro data release.
The unexpected contraction in U.S. payrolls arrives as the Federal Reserve's policy committee seeks confirmation that inflation is sustainably moving toward its 2% target. Market expectations had previously leaned toward the Fed initiating another rate hike at its September meeting to temper persistent price pressures. The July jobs report, however, provides the first concrete evidence of labor market softening after months of resilient hiring. This single data point directly challenges the narrative of an overheated economy requiring further monetary tightening. The last time a major negative payrolls surprise preceded a Fed policy pivot was in September 2023, when a sub-100,000 print contributed to the central bank's decision to pause its hiking cycle.
The current macroeconomic backdrop features benchmark 10-year Treasury yields hovering near 4.2% and the S&P 500 index trading near record highs. The catalyst for Bitcoin's price surge is the immediate repricing of Fed rate expectations. Futures markets now assign a lower probability to a September hike, increasing the appeal of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. This dynamic follows a pattern observed in early 2024 when weaker-than-expected inflation data triggered a similar rally. The shift reduces the opportunity cost of holding digital assets versus interest-bearing securities, driving capital allocation decisions across institutional portfolios.
The immediate market reaction to the 103,000-job forecast miss was a swift repricing across multiple asset classes. Bitcoin's price surged from a pre-report level near $64,300 to breach the $65,000 psychological threshold within minutes of the data release. The cryptocurrency's market capitalization now stands at $1.30 trillion, reflecting its regained status as a trillion-dollar asset. Trading volume spiked to $20.98 billion over the past 24 hours, indicating substantial capital flows in response to the macro shock. This volume figure represents a 40% increase from the 30-day average, highlighting the outsized market activity.
A comparison of key metrics before and after the jobs report shows the magnitude of the shift. The probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September, as implied by the CME FedWatch Tool, fell from approximately 68% to below 30% following the data. Concurrently, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped 0.8% as expectations for higher U.S. rates diminished. In contrast, major equity indices showed muted initial reactions, with the S&P 500 futures gaining only 0.3%. This divergence underscores Bitcoin's heightened sensitivity to changes in liquidity expectations and real interest rates relative to traditional risk assets. The 0.65% 24-hour gain for Bitcoin modestly outperformed gold's 0.4% increase during the same period.
The jobs data miss triggers second-order effects across cryptocurrency and traditional finance sectors. Direct beneficiaries include high-beta crypto assets like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), which typically exhibit amplified correlation with Bitcoin during macro-driven rallies. Mining equities such as Marathon Digital (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) also stand to gain from improved sentiment toward Bitcoin's price trajectory. Conversely, the U.S. banking sector, particularly regional banks represented by the KRE ETF, faces headwinds from falling rate hike expectations that compress net interest margin forecasts. Treasury yields across the curve declined, with the 2-year note falling 15 basis points, benefiting bond holders but pressuring financial stocks.
A key limitation of the bullish reaction is that a single month of jobs data may not constitute a trend. The Fed has emphasized the need for multiple data points confirming labor market cooling before altering its policy stance decisively. August's jobs report, due September 5, will provide critical confirmation. Market positioning data from derivatives exchanges shows a notable increase in call option buying for Bitcoin, targeting strikes above $68,000. Flow analysis indicates net inflows into Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for the first time in three trading sessions, suggesting institutional participation in the rally. Short covering among leveraged futures traders provided additional fuel for the initial price spike above $65,000.
Immediate market focus shifts to the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for release on August 13. This inflation data will either reinforce or contradict the disinflationary signal from the jobs report. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes from July, published on August 20, will provide deeper insight into the committee's reaction function regarding labor market developments. Traders will monitor the $64,000 level as immediate technical support for Bitcoin, with resistance expected near the late-July high of $66,200. A sustained break above this resistance could target the $68,500 area, last tested in June.
The 50-day simple moving average for Bitcoin, currently near $63,800, represents another key dynamic support level. In Treasury markets, the 10-year yield holding below 4.15% would confirm the bearish shift in rate expectations. Should the August jobs report on September 5 confirm July's weakness, the Fed would likely formally abandon its hiking bias. Conversely, a strong rebound in payrolls would reinstate September hike probabilities and likely trigger a swift reversal in Bitcoin's gains. The relative performance of Bitcoin against the Nasdaq 100 index will serve as a barometer for whether the rally is driven by macro liquidity expectations or broader tech sentiment.
Weaker jobs data suggests a potential pivot in Federal Reserve monetary policy from tightening to a pause or eventual easing. Bitcoin's long-term valuation framework often incorporates the global liquidity environment, with lower real interest rates historically supportive of its price. The immediate price reaction reflects a discounting mechanism for future liquidity conditions. A sustained period of Fed inactivity or rate cuts could improve the fundamental backdrop for scarce digital assets by reducing the attractiveness of yield-bearing alternatives. Historical analysis of prior Fed pivot periods, like late 2023, shows Bitcoin typically experiences multi-month rallies following the initial policy shift confirmation.
Initial market reactions to major economic data like the jobs report are often volatile and subject to revision. The first 30 minutes of trading frequently see exaggerated moves as algorithmic systems execute pre-programmed strategies. The accuracy of the initial direction—whether the market correctly interprets the data's implications for policy—tends to be higher than the accuracy of the initial magnitude. Market consensus typically solidifies over the subsequent 24-48 hours as human analysts provide context and cross-asset correlations stabilize. The July 2023 jobs report surprise initially sparked a similar rally that was partially retraced within a week as other data contradicted the weak signal.
Cryptocurrencies with high correlation to Bitcoin and those perceived as direct proxies for digital asset liquidity typically benefit most. Ethereum (ETH) often leads the altcoin sector in such environments due to its deep liquidity and institutional adoption. Layer-1 blockchain tokens like Solana (SOL) and Avalanche (AVAX) may see amplified gains as risk appetite returns to the crypto sector. Decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens, particularly those tied to lending protocols like Aave (AAVE), can benefit from improved sentiment around on-chain economic activity. However, these assets also carry higher volatility and may underperform if the macro shift proves temporary.
The July jobs miss has abruptly repriced Federal Reserve expectations, providing a catalyst for Bitcoin to reclaim a key psychological price level.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.
AiX is our free MetaTrader 4 Expert Advisor. Verified Myfxbook performance. No subscription. No fees. XAUUSD breakout engine.
Trade the assets mentioned in this article
Trade on BybitSponsored
Open a demo account in 30 seconds. No deposit required.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.