Researchers at Schwab and Hashdex argued on 4 July 2026 that capital flows into artificial intelligence have diverted investment from digital assets, creating a temporary divergence between bitcoin and equities. Bitcoin continues to follow its historical post-halving recovery pattern, suggesting the current disconnect from record-high stock indices is unlikely to persist. As of 16:00 UTC today, bitcoin traded at $62,767 with a 24-hour gain of 1.38% and a market capitalization of $1.26 trillion, while Schwab shares rallied 5.13% to $97.00.
Context — why this matters now
The current market dynamic mirrors the mid-2021 period when institutional rotation into reflation trades briefly decoupled bitcoin from the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100. Between May and July 2021, the Nasdaq Composite gained 11% while bitcoin fell 42%, a divergence that fully reversed by November 2021 when bitcoin reached its then-all-time high.
The macro backdrop features elevated equity valuations, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite at record levels, juxtaposed against a cryptocurrency market in a consolidation phase following its April 2024 halving event.
The immediate catalyst is the sustained capital allocation toward AI infrastructure and semiconductor companies, which has drawn speculative and institutional funds away from alternative asset classes. This rotation has accelerated throughout 2026, coinciding with bitcoin's typical post-halving accumulation period, which historically lasts 12-18 months before a significant price acceleration.
The narrative shift frames crypto not as a competing speculative asset but as a cyclical play operating on a different timetable, one now entering a later stage where historical precedent suggests renewed correlation.
Data — what the numbers show
Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume stands at $19.46 billion, a figure that, while substantial, has been eclipsed by daily flows into major AI-focused equity ETFs. The cryptocurrency's year-to-date performance of approximately 15% lags the Nasdaq 100's 22% gain over the same period.
The 90-day correlation coefficient between bitcoin and the S&P 500 has dropped to 0.25, down from a 2024 peak of 0.68, indicating a notable short-term divergence. Bitcoin's market dominance—its share of the total crypto market cap—has held steady near 52%, showing resilience despite the capital outflow narrative.
| Metric | Bitcoin | Nasdaq 100 (NDX) |
|---|
| YTD Performance | +15% (approx.) | +22% |
| 90-Day Volatility | ~65% annualized | ~18% annualized |
| Key Support | $58,000 | 19,500 |
Schwab's stock performance, up 5.13% to $97.00 within a $96.20-$97.45 range, reflects broader financial sector strength amid high trading activity and asset management inflows.
Analysis — what it means for markets / sectors / tickers
The direct beneficiaries of the AI capital rotation are semiconductor manufacturers like NVIDIA and AMD, and cloud infrastructure providers. These equities have seen valuation expansions of 30-50% year-to-date, multiples that crypto miners and blockchain infrastructure firms have not matched.
Publicly traded bitcoin miners such as Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms face compressed margins and underperformance relative to the tech sector, pressured by higher energy costs and stagnant bitcoin prices. Conversely, asset managers with diversified offerings, like Schwab, gain from facilitating flows into both AI equities and crypto products, insulating them from sector-specific rotations.
A counter-argument posits that AI development could permanently absorb risk capital, extending the divergence indefinitely if crypto fails to produce a compelling new use-case catalyst. Historical data on post-halving cycles, however, suggests this is a phase, not a permanent state.
Positioning data from futures markets shows institutional players maintaining net-long bitcoin futures positions while simultaneously increasing exposure to AI equity baskets, a hedged bet on both narratives. Flow analysis indicates net outflows from crypto investment products have stabilized in recent weeks, suggesting the rotation may be nearing exhaustion.
Outlook — what to watch next
The primary catalyst for a re-convergence is the maturation of bitcoin's post-halving cycle, with historical breakouts typically occurring 12-15 months after the event, pointing to a window between Q3 and Q4 2026.
Key levels to monitor include bitcoin's resistance at $65,000, a breach of which could trigger momentum algorithms, and its 200-day moving average near $60,000, which has acted as dynamic support. A decisive break above 20,500 on the Nasdaq 100 could signal a broader risk-on move that may spill back into crypto.
Upcoming earnings from major AI companies in late July will test the sustainability of that sector's valuations. Significant disappointment could trigger a rapid reallocation of funds. The next major U.S. inflation print and Federal Reserve commentary in August will also clarify the liquidity environment for all risk assets.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the post-halving cycle typically affect bitcoin's price?
The bitcoin halving reduces the block reward for miners by 50%, slowing the new supply entering the market. Historically, this supply shock has preceded major bull markets, but with a lag. The 2016-2017 cycle saw prices rise over 12x in the 18 months post-halving, while the 2020-2021 cycle produced a 6x gain. The current cycle is in the accumulation phase, where price action is often sideways or modestly positive before a parabolic move.
What does AI investment have to do with cryptocurrency prices?
AI and crypto compete for a similar pool of speculative and growth-oriented institutional capital. When a sector like AI demonstrates explosive revenue growth and clear technological utility, asset allocators shift portfolios to maximize exposure, often reducing allocations to other alternative assets like crypto. This creates a short-term negative correlation, but the effect tends to fade when the hot sector's growth trajectory slows or saturates.
Has bitcoin's correlation with stocks broken down permanently?
No long-term structural break in the bitcoin-equity correlation is evident. While short-term decoupling occurs during sector-specific rotations or unique crypto events, the 360-day rolling correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 has remained positive since 2020. Both assets are ultimately influenced by macro liquidity conditions, meaning sustained Federal Reserve easing or tightening will likely drive them in the same broad direction again.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin's path is aligning with its historical post-halving script, setting the stage for a renewed convergence with equity markets.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.
