Asset Managers Build Biggest Fed Funds Short Since Early 2023
0h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
fedinterest-rates
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
Trades XAUUSD 24/5 on autopilot. Verified Myfxbook performance. Free forever.
Risk warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The majority of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. Vortex HFT is informational software — not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Institutional traders have amassed their largest collective short position in CME Fed funds futures since early 2023, according to data reported on May 28, 2026. This positioning indicates a strong market conviction that the Federal Reserve will begin a rate-cutting cycle later this year. The Commitment of Traders report for the week ending May 24 showed asset managers increased their net short position to approximately 575,000 contracts. This build-up directly precedes the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for June 18, 2026.
Large institutions are signaling a clear directional bet against the Federal Reserve’s current policy rate. The magnitude of this short position is its most significant since February 2023, when a similar buildup preceded a 25-basis-point rate hike. That historical positioning proved correct as the Fed followed through with tightening.
The current macro backdrop features inflation metrics hovering near the Fed’s 2% target and slowing economic growth indicators. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index registered 2.1% year-over-year in the April 2026 reading. Second-quarter GDP estimates have been revised down to an annualized pace of 1.8%.
The catalyst for the aggressive short positioning is a pivot in Fed communications. Recent speeches by Fed governors have emphasized a data-dependent approach, with several members highlighting risks to the labor market. Minutes from the May 2026 meeting revealed heightened concerns over consumer spending resilience.
Market participants interpreted this shift as opening the door for a pre-emptive cut to support the economy, rather than reacting to a crisis. This forward-looking stance has driven the repositioning in rate futures ahead of concrete policy action.
The Commitment of Traders report provides concrete evidence of the shift. Asset managers’ net short position in the July 2026 Fed funds futures contract reached 575,000 contracts. This represents a weekly increase of 128,000 contracts, one of the largest single-week builds on record.
Fed funds futures pricing now implies a 92% probability of at least one 25-basis-point rate cut by the September 2026 meeting. The probability assigned to a cut at the July meeting has surged to 75%, up from just 35% one month prior. The implied year-end 2026 policy rate has fallen to 4.00%, down 50 basis points from the May peak.
| Metric | Level | Change vs. Prior Week |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Manager Net Short Position | 575,000 contracts | +128,000 |
| Implied July Cut Probability | 75% | +40 percentage points |
| Implied Year-End 2026 Fed Funds Rate | 4.00% | -25 bps |
This shift contrasts with the steady positioning in the 10-year Treasury note, where yields have remained range-bound between 4.25% and 4.35%. The disconnect suggests the short-term rate move is seen as a policy adjustment, not the start of a full easing cycle.
The direct second-order effect is a steepening of the yield curve’s front end. Two-year Treasury yields have fallen 18 basis points to 4.15% since the positioning data emerged. This decline benefits interest-rate-sensitive sectors like homebuilders and utilities. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) has gained 4.2% over the past five sessions. The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) is up 3.1%.
Regional banks also stand to gain from a lower rate environment, which reduces pressure on net interest margins. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) has advanced 2.8%. Conversely, the positioning creates a headwind for the U.S. dollar index (DXY), which has slipped 0.8% as yield differentials narrow.
A key risk to this consensus trade is stubborn core services inflation. The May 2026 CPI report, due June 12, could undermine the case for a July cut if it prints above consensus. Should the Fed defy expectations and hold rates steady, a violent short covering rally in front-end rates could ensue, pressuring the recently outperforming sectors.
Positioning data shows leveraged funds, often hedge funds, have been net buyers of these short-dated futures contracts, providing liquidity to the asset managers building the short. Flow analysis indicates capital moving out of money market funds and into duration-sensitive assets in anticipation of the shift.
The immediate catalyst is the June 12, 2026, release of the Consumer Price Index data for May. A print at or below the 2.2% consensus for core CPI would validate the short position. A hotter print above 2.4% could trigger a rapid unwind.
The Federal Open Market Committee decision and updated Summary of Economic Projections on June 18 are the primary event. Markets will scrutinize the dot plot for confirmation of the anticipated 2024 easing path. Any shift from the median projection of three cuts would cause significant volatility.
Key technical levels to monitor include the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.25%, which is a major support level. A break below could accelerate the curve steepening trade. For the U.S. dollar index, the 104.00 level is critical support; a breach could signal a broader bearish trend.
A short position in Fed funds futures is a bet that the effective federal funds rate will fall. Traders sell contracts today, hoping to buy them back cheaper after a Fed rate cut. The contract price moves inversely to the expected interest rate. This positioning by asset managers, who typically hedge interest rate exposure, is a direct expression of rate-cut expectations rather than a speculative punt.
The current net short position of 575,000 contracts is larger in magnitude than the peak short of approximately 510,000 contracts seen in February 2023. However, the context is opposite. The 2023 short was a bet on imminent rate hikes to combat inflation. The 2026 short is a bet on imminent rate cuts to address slowing growth. The market’s conviction, as measured by the size of the position, is currently stronger for cuts now than it was for hikes then.
Vortex HFT is our free MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor. Verified Myfxbook performance. No subscription. No fees. Trades 24/5.
Position yourself for the macro moves discussed above
Start TradingSponsored
Open a demo account in 30 seconds. No deposit required.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
