Adani Stocks Surge on Report US May Drop Fraud Probe

Shares of Adani Group companies experienced significant volatility on May 15, 2026, following unconfirmed reports that U.S. authorities may be preparing to drop a fraud investigation into founder Gautam Adani. Adani Enterprises, the group's flagship firm, surged as much as 18% in intraday trading before paring some gains. The news, first reported by investing.com, triggered a broad rally across the conglomerate’s listed entities, adding over $15 billion to its combined market capitalization during the session.

What Sparked the Sudden Rally in Adani Stocks?

The primary catalyst was a media report suggesting the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York was considering closing its inquiry into the conglomerate. This investigation began in 2023 following serious allegations from short-seller Hindenburg Research. The probe focused on whether Adani Group made misleading representations to American investors when raising capital in international markets.

The market reaction was immediate and forceful. Trading volumes for Adani-linked stocks spiked to more than five times their 30-day average within the first hour of the market opening. This indicates a rush of buying activity from both retail and institutional investors reacting to the potentially exonerating news, which could remove a major legal overhang on the group's global operations.

How Did Key Adani Group Companies Perform?

Adani Enterprises (NSE: ADANIENT) was the primary beneficiary, closing the day 9.5% higher after reaching an intraday peak of ₹3,450. The stock saw its most active trading session in over a year, with billions of dollars in shares changing hands. This flagship company is often seen as a proxy for the entire group's health and investor sentiment.

Other group companies also posted strong gains. Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone (NSE: ADANIPORTS) rose 7.2%, while Adani Green Energy climbed 8.5%. The rally was broad-based, reflecting renewed investor confidence in the conglomerate's governance and financial stability. The group's total market value briefly crossed the $200 billion mark during the session, a significant milestone in its recovery.

What Were the Original US Fraud Allegations?

The U.S. investigation stemmed from a January 2023 report by Hindenburg Research. The report alleged widespread stock price manipulation and accounting fraud over several decades. These accusations caused a market rout that erased over $100 billion from Adani Group's market value at its lowest point, triggering margin calls and forcing the group to cancel a planned $2.5 billion share sale.

Following the report, U.S. authorities, including the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), began looking into the group’s disclosures to American investors. Specifically, the probe examined the accuracy of financial reporting and governance information provided to institutions that held Adani's dollar-denominated bonds and other securities. The investigation created a significant overhang on the stock prices for more than a year.

Why Is Official Confirmation Still a Key Risk?

The primary risk for investors is that these reports remain unconfirmed. Neither the U.S. Department of Justice nor the Adani Group has issued an official statement verifying the closure of the investigation. The market is currently trading on speculation, which could lead to a sharp reversal if the reports prove inaccurate or if a clarifying statement presents a different picture.

This lack of official confirmation represents a significant uncertainty for all equities in the group. Until the U.S. Attorney's office formally comments, the legal overhang persists. Investors who buy into the rally at these levels are betting that the media reports are correct, a high-stakes wager given the lack of primary evidence. This is a classic case of "buy the rumor," which can quickly become "sell the news" or reverse entirely.

Q: Did the news affect Adani's bond prices?

A: Yes, the positive sentiment extended to the debt markets. Yields on Adani Group's U.S. dollar-denominated bonds tightened significantly. For example, the yield on Adani Ports' 2029 bond dropped by approximately 35 basis points, indicating a rise in price and perceived creditworthiness. This suggests bond investors are also pricing in a lower legal risk for the conglomerate.

Q: How does this development relate to India's domestic investigations?

A: This U.S.-centric news is separate from the ongoing regulatory oversight within India. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has been conducting its own investigation into the Hindenburg allegations. While a favorable outcome in the U.S. could positively influence sentiment, it does not legally preclude Indian regulators from reaching their own independent conclusions based on their findings.

Q: What was the Adani Group's market cap before the 2023 Hindenburg report?

A: Prior to the Hindenburg Research report in January 2023, the combined market capitalization of all listed Adani Group companies peaked at approximately $280 billion. The subsequent crash saw it fall below $100 billion. The recovery has been substantial, with the group's valuation now hovering around the $200 billion mark following this latest rally.

Bottom Line

Speculative reports of a dropped U.S. probe have fueled a major rally, but the lack of official confirmation remains a critical risk.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.